The real solution to the energy crisis is not simply more alternative energy, to erect huge forests of wind mills, install solar panels on every roof top, and introduce hydrogen cells in every basement. While the answer to our energy crisis certainly includes alternative energy, we need a “whole systems solution” to not only energy but also to economics, agriculture, science, and politics.

by Roar Ramesh Bjonnes

Deep down, we all know that. Even those driving expensive, gas guzzling SUVs know that fossil fuels are a limited commodity. Nevertheless, most of us behave as if this nonrenewable resource will always be with us. No further away than the next Shell or Arco station. But, according to some experts, it’s time to reconsider. There’s a fuel crisis looming on the earth’s smoggy horizon. The most pessimistic of them, such as geologist Colin Campbell, estimates that soon there will be no more oil. The world fuel supply, he claims, will peak by 2010 and be down to half that level by 2025-30. To top it off, huge price increases will hit us after the peak.

The not-so-pessimistic experts, such as those from the US Geological Survey, estimate that reserves discovered by 2030 could be twice as large as Campbell believes. John Edwards of the University of Colorado also belongs in the optimist camp. He predicts a global peak in oil production between 2030 and 2040. So, even according to the most optimistic data, a future oil crisis is just around the corner.

The experts do agree on one thing. The grand peak of oil production is going to occur when about half of the estimated ultimately recoverable reserves (EUR) of oil in the world have been produced. According to the World Resources Institute’s Program on Climate, Energy and Pollution the “great majority of these studies reflect a consensus among oil experts that the EUR for oil lie within the range of 1800 to 2,200 billion barrels.” And, writes, Jeremy Rifkin in his book The Hydrogen Economy, “the world has already consumed more than 875 billion barrels of the total.” So, put on your seatbelts. The Battle of Oil’s Armageddon may soon be upon us.

Hubbard’s Curve

How did the experts figure all this out? They employed the methodology of geo-physicist M. King Hubbart. His thesis is as simple and graceful as his bell-shaped curve. In the words of Jeremy Rifkin: [“Hubbart] argued that oil production starts at zero, rises, peaks, when half the estimated ultimately recoverable oil is produced, and then falls, all along a classic bell-shaped curve.” It sounds almost too simple, had it not been for Hubbart’s convincing track record.

In 1956, Hubbart wrote a now famous paper that predicted the peak and decline of US oil production. He predicted that US oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. He was right. Production peaked in 1970, and the US lost its role as the largest oil producer in the world. Today, more than 60 percent of the recoverable oil in the US has been produced. And, writes Rifkin, “using the same model, Hubbart estimated in 1971 that the middle 80 percent of global oil production will be produced within fifty-eight to sixty-four years, or less than one lifetime.” If Hubbard’s right, our increasingly energy-hungry world will soon be on a slippery slide down his bell-shaped curve.

Oil and Geopolitics

Actor Viggo Mortensen, famed for his role in The Lord of the Rings trilogy, is clearly in disagreement with George Bush about the reason the US went to war in Iraq. The T-shirt he was wearing recently as a guest on the PBS talk show Charlie Rose said it all: NO MORE BLOOD FOR OIL. The war in Iraq, according to him, was not, as Bush claimed, about weapons of mass destruction and terrorism.

The oil experts may disagree about the timing of when the oil runs out, but they all agree that most of the remaining “black gold” in the world is located under hot sand dunes in the Persian Gulf. The five OPEC nations -- Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE—are the world’s leading producers of oil. The most prominent user of oil, on the other hand, is the US. Although the US has only 5 percent of the world’s population, US consumers guzzle down a whopping 26 percent of this indispensable liquid annually. Surprisingly, though, the US imports a smaller percentage of oil from OPEC than it did 20 years ago. In the first 6 months of 2001, the US actually imported more from Canada than from Saudi Arabia. So, is Viggo Mortensen wrong? Not necessarily.

The Russian president, Valdimir V. Putin, said in October 2001, in a “timely” statement shortly after the World Trade Center attacks, that “Russia remains a reliable and predictable partner and supplier of oil.” In reality, experts agree that Russia’s elite status in the world’s oil market will be short-lived. According to the New York Times, we will, in the next few years, see a decline in oil production in Russia, the North Sea, the Alaskan north slope, the areas off the shores of West Africa, and other regions. The countries in the Middle East will therefore soon become owners of the biggest stock piles of barrels of oil around.

Here are the crude facts: There are forty super-giant fields of oil in the world, twenty six of those are in the Middle East. Most importantly, while many of the oil fields in Russia and the US are in decline, production from the black oceans of oil in the OPEC countries are still ascending Hubbart’s elegant curve.

The Iraq war was as much motivated by geopolitical positioning as the wish to fight terrorism, and surely more about the future control of crude oil than about finding Saddam’s destructive weapons. In other words, 9/11 created the political climate needed to go to war. Weapons of mass destruction were the pretext, and the long term goal was to secure access to oil.

No surprise there. Historically, oil and recent wars have had an unholy alliance. The airplanes of World War 1 was fueled by oil and thus, according to Lord Curzon, the “allied forces floated to victory upon a wave of oil.” Hitler, desperate for oil, invaded the Soviet Union during World War 2 in 1941. The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor the same year was also motivated by the need for oil.

The future flow of money from the West to the Middle East and a reverse flow of oil will only heighten an already tense geopolitical situation. Some possible scenarios: The OPEC nations will not be able to meet the demand of oil needed to be pumped into Europe, the US and the rest of the world. Prices will soar, economies will shake. The Muslim countries may use oil as a political bargaining chip and suspend production to countries not supporting their political agenda. Such a scenario would be more likely if Muslim fundamentalists staged a successful coup in Saudi Arabia or other OPEC nations. The US military presence in the region could thus expand into a “permanent force,” which could turn into a prolonged war between the Muslim Middle East and the Christian West. In other words, more blood for the sake of oil. In the long run, it could lead to global economic meltdown